[ Analyse de survie et facteurs associés à la mortalité chez les patients admis en réanimation pour COVID-19 au Centre Hospitalier Idrissa Pouye de Grand Yoff (ex-HOGGY), Dakar, Sénégal (Juillet 2020-Septembre 2021): Étude de cohorte portant sur 175 cas ]
Volume 83, Issue 1, February 2026, Pages 112–121
Sarr Badara Jerome1, Mbodji El Hadji Macodou2, Tine Jean Augustin Diégane3, Bassoum Oumar4, and Faye Adama5
1 Service de Médecine préventive et de Santé publique, Faculté de Médecine, de Pharmacie et d’odontologie, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
2 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
3 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
4 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
5 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Original language: French
Copyright © 2026 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Introduction: COVID-19 remains associated with high morbidity and mortality among patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), particularly in resource-constrained settings. Identifying factors associated with mortality and analyzing time to death are essential to improve clinical management and inform prevention strategies. This study aimed to analyze survival among ICU patients with COVID-19 and to identify factors associated with mortality. Methods: This was an observational analytical study including patients admitted to the ICU for COVID-19. Total ICU length of stay (DTS), expressed in days, was used as the time variable. Death in the ICU was considered the event of interest, while patients discharged alive or transferred were treated as censored observations. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method with calculation of medians and 95% confidence intervals. Survival comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Bivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), followed by a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors independently associated with mortality. Results: A total of 175 patients were included, with an overall mortality rate of 65.7%. The median overall survival was 6 days. In bivariate analysis, age ≥ 60 years (OR = 2.45; 95 % CI [1,30 –4,60]), unvaccinated status (OR = 2.10; 95 % CI [1,15 –3,85]), and diabetes (OR = 1.80; 95 % CI [1,00 –3,20]) were significantly associated with mortality. The use of invasive mechanical ventilation was strongly associated with death (OR = 10.5; 95 % CI [4,8 –23,0]). In multivariable analysis, age, vaccination status, and type of ventilatory support remained independently associated with mortality. Conclusion: This study highlights a high and early mortality among patients admitted to the ICU for COVID-19. Advanced age, lack of vaccination, diabetes, and severe respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation were the main determinants of poor prognosis. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies, particularly vaccination, and early, appropriate management of severe COVID-19 to reduce ICU mortality.
Author Keywords: COVID-19, survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards model, mortality.
Volume 83, Issue 1, February 2026, Pages 112–121
Sarr Badara Jerome1, Mbodji El Hadji Macodou2, Tine Jean Augustin Diégane3, Bassoum Oumar4, and Faye Adama5
1 Service de Médecine préventive et de Santé publique, Faculté de Médecine, de Pharmacie et d’odontologie, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
2 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
3 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
4 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
5 Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
Original language: French
Copyright © 2026 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
Introduction: COVID-19 remains associated with high morbidity and mortality among patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), particularly in resource-constrained settings. Identifying factors associated with mortality and analyzing time to death are essential to improve clinical management and inform prevention strategies. This study aimed to analyze survival among ICU patients with COVID-19 and to identify factors associated with mortality. Methods: This was an observational analytical study including patients admitted to the ICU for COVID-19. Total ICU length of stay (DTS), expressed in days, was used as the time variable. Death in the ICU was considered the event of interest, while patients discharged alive or transferred were treated as censored observations. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method with calculation of medians and 95% confidence intervals. Survival comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Bivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), followed by a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors independently associated with mortality. Results: A total of 175 patients were included, with an overall mortality rate of 65.7%. The median overall survival was 6 days. In bivariate analysis, age ≥ 60 years (OR = 2.45; 95 % CI [1,30 –4,60]), unvaccinated status (OR = 2.10; 95 % CI [1,15 –3,85]), and diabetes (OR = 1.80; 95 % CI [1,00 –3,20]) were significantly associated with mortality. The use of invasive mechanical ventilation was strongly associated with death (OR = 10.5; 95 % CI [4,8 –23,0]). In multivariable analysis, age, vaccination status, and type of ventilatory support remained independently associated with mortality. Conclusion: This study highlights a high and early mortality among patients admitted to the ICU for COVID-19. Advanced age, lack of vaccination, diabetes, and severe respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation were the main determinants of poor prognosis. These findings underscore the importance of preventive strategies, particularly vaccination, and early, appropriate management of severe COVID-19 to reduce ICU mortality.
Author Keywords: COVID-19, survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards model, mortality.
Abstract: (french)
Introduction: La COVID-19 reste associée à une morbidité et une mortalité élevée chez les patients admis en réanimation, en particulier dans les contextes de soins intensifs confrontés à des contraintes de ressources. L’identification des facteurs associés à la mortalité et l’analyse du temps jusqu’au décès sont essentielles pour améliorer la prise en charge et orienter les stratégies de prévention. Cette étude vise à analyser la survie des patients admis en réanimation pour COVID-19 et à identifier les facteurs associés au décès. Méthodes: Il s’agit d’une étude observationnelle analytique incluant des patients admis en réanimation pour COVID-19. La durée totale de séjour en réanimation (DTS), exprimée en jours, a été utilisée comme variable de temps. Le décès en réanimation constituait l’événement d’intérêt, tandis que les patients vivant à la sortie ou transférés étaient considérés comme censurés. Les probabilités de survie ont été estimées par la méthode de Kaplan–Meier avec calcul des médianes et des intervalles de confiance (IC) à 95 %. Les comparaisons de survie ont été réalisées à l’aide du test du log-rank. Une analyse bivariée par régression logistique a permis d’estimer les odds ratios (OR), suivis d’une régression de Cox multivariée pour identifier les facteurs indépendamment associés à la mortalité. Résultats: Au total, 175 patients ont été inclus, avec une mortalité globale de 65,7 %. La médiane de survie globale était de 6 jours. En analyse bivariée, un âge ≥ 60 ans (OR = 2,45; IC à 95 % [1,30 –4,60]), le statut non vacciné (OR = 2,10; IC à 95 % [1,15 –3,85]) et la présence de diabète (OR = 1,80; IC à 95 % [1,00 –3,20]) étaient significativement associés au décès. Le recours à une ventilation mécanique invasive était fortement associé à la mortalité (OR = 10,5; IC à 95 % [4,8 –23,0]). En analyse multivariée, l’âge, le statut vaccinal et le type de support ventilatoire demeuraient des facteurs indépendamment associés au risque de décès. Conclusion: Cette étude met en évidence une mortalité élevée et précoce chez les patients admis en réanimation pour COVID-19. L’âge avancé, l’absence de vaccination, le diabète et surtout la gravité respiratoire nécessitant une ventilation invasive constituent les principaux déterminants du pronostic. Ces résultats soulignent l’importance de la prévention, notamment par la vaccination, et d’une prise en charge précoce et adaptée des formes sévères afin de réduire la mortalité en soins intensifs.
Author Keywords: COVID-19, analyse de survie, Kaplan–Meier, modèle de Cox, mortalité.
How to Cite this Article
Sarr Badara Jerome, Mbodji El Hadji Macodou, Tine Jean Augustin Diégane, Bassoum Oumar, and Faye Adama, “Survival analysis and factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit at Idrissa Pouye Hospital (ex-HOGGY), Dakar, Senegal (July 2020-September 2021): A cohort study of 175 cases,” International Journal of Innovation and Scientific Research, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 112–121, February 2026.
