Volume 11, Issue 2, November 2014, Pages 330–338
Moulay El Mehdi Falloul1 and Moulay Ali Falloul2
1 Ph.D candidate in applied economics and finance, Hassan II University of Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Morocco
2 Ph.D in magnetism and electrical engineering, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: English
Copyright © 2014 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This paper focuses on the modeling of financial resources of private social security organism, namely the determination of models or process able to reproduce the evolution of this component. From the optimal model chosen, monthly forecasts are established. Financial resources modeling and forecasts resulting are obtained by application of the univariate analysis of Box-Jenkins method, which is the most suitable for the study of time series like the series of monthly financial resources of social security scheme administered by the institution. This approach is to determine the model that allows more faithfully the reproduction of the evolution of the financial resources of the institution and forecasting on a determined horizon.
Author Keywords: financial resources modeling, time series, stationary, ARIMA, BOX and JENKINS.
Moulay El Mehdi Falloul1 and Moulay Ali Falloul2
1 Ph.D candidate in applied economics and finance, Hassan II University of Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Morocco
2 Ph.D in magnetism and electrical engineering, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: English
Copyright © 2014 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This paper focuses on the modeling of financial resources of private social security organism, namely the determination of models or process able to reproduce the evolution of this component. From the optimal model chosen, monthly forecasts are established. Financial resources modeling and forecasts resulting are obtained by application of the univariate analysis of Box-Jenkins method, which is the most suitable for the study of time series like the series of monthly financial resources of social security scheme administered by the institution. This approach is to determine the model that allows more faithfully the reproduction of the evolution of the financial resources of the institution and forecasting on a determined horizon.
Author Keywords: financial resources modeling, time series, stationary, ARIMA, BOX and JENKINS.
How to Cite this Article
Moulay El Mehdi Falloul and Moulay Ali Falloul, “Modeling social security institution financial resources,” International Journal of Innovation and Scientific Research, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 330–338, November 2014.
